Jessica Watson - The Picture!

This snap, taken at 9:19 am local time today, shows the current position and course of Ella's Pink Lady. She's the "purple" vessel almost directly off Curl Curl on a NW course.

So close!!

Jessica Watson's Position

About 2 hours ago, at 10:42:01 UTC, Jessica was at 33.94 degrees south 151.81 degrees east, she was on a course of 017 degrees and doing 3.6 knots.

For those without the means to decipher that, that position is about 25-30 nautical miles off the coast near Sydney and a little south of the harbour - roughly between South Head and Botany Bay. That UTC time is 8:42:01 pm Sydney time.

Home soon!!

An update on Saturday morning:

During the night, Jessica sailed in a NNW direction to a position about 10 miles to seaward of Palm Beach. Then she turned and began sailing back along her course! It must be frustrating for her playing this waiting game! At 19:08:04 UTC she was a 33.65 south and 151.62 east, on a course of 148 degrees and at a speed of 4.4 knots. That position is about 12 or so miles off the coast and only just south of her most northerly point off Palm Beach. With the wind offshore as it is, Jessica will be able to smell the land. That's one of the things I always remember about making a landfall - smelling the land for the first time.

I imagine that Jessica will quietly trundle SE during the morning and at some point around 9:00 local time begin her run into the harbour. What a great achievement!!!

Jessica Watson - The Last Slog to Sydney

Well Jesse again came through the rotten weather of the last few days with flying colours. She's now somewhere off the eastern mouth of Bass Strait it appears from her website. Unfortunately the weather isn't going to be too kind. Here's this morning's MSL analysis chart from the BOM:

Those headwinds that Jessica has talked about in her blog will go around to a nice beam or broad reach for the next day or so but then the inevitable will happen - another front. I guess the only question is whether it forges straight through like the one that's currently east of Tasmania or whether it gets pushed away south by those two highs as they move across the country. Either way probably some more headwinds in 36 to 48 hours.

Jessica's support team is predicting that she won't be in Sydney until Saturday 15 May. That's a slow trip by any standards as she only has about 500 nm or less to go. Jessica sounded pretty laid back in her blog so she doesn't think it's a race either.

In fact I'd be guessing that she'll get a little frustrated over the next few days, jilling around at sea when she could be at home...

Jessica Watson - A Fabulous Achievement

Jessica Watson has met every challenge along the way and triumphed. Those who have been to sea in small boats will know how much of a challenge she has faced. This is a very raw and confronting experience, there's not much between you and the elements. Disaster can be close and sudden.

I have a sense however that Jess is facing her greatest challenge right now. Jessica and her team have always said that she won't go through Bass Strait, but rather will pass south of Tasmania. That's good and sensible, the passage through Bass Strait has some elements of "threading a needle" particularly if you are solo and sleep deprived. There's plenty of shipping, as I well know. You can see that here. Just home in on the Bass Strait area and you'll see the traffic as well as the geographical obstacles.

Here's the rub however: Jess has come a long way north due to weather and is now almost loitering at the entrance to Bass Strait - off the mouth of the Hunter Strait really. This is the time of year when low pressure systems sweep through - on about the latitude of Tasmania and about every 4-7 days. If Jess is to pass south of Tasmania she will have to turn south and run down the west coast of Tasmania. I'm not in the least convinced that that is a good move.

Ocean Passages for the World is an Admiralty publication that has been published since the days of the sailing ships. It adjures masters as follows:

...and thence west of Tasmania...It is often necessary, and in heavy weather, desirable to make this passage at a considerable distance from the coast of Tasmania; namely at from 120 to 250 miles from the W coast...

Now that's the summer route! The winter route is as follows:

For the rest of the year, and as an alternative to the summer route, pass through Bass Strait...

Now let's be clear. Jessica is sailing a vessel that's much more weatherly than the old sailing ships. She is also naturally disinclined to take the risk of another encounter with shipping. However there is real risk in running the west coast of Tasmania at close proximity at this time of the year and solo. Without sufficient sea room Jess doesn't have the option of running before any weather until it abates. Instead she must continue to sail and to claw offshore.

If the conditions do deteriorate with the inevitable passage of a front then she may be placed in a difficult situation.

To put this in perspective. This week, as a front passed, the Cape Sorrell waverider buoy registered a maximum wave height of around 13.5 metres and was at or above 10 metres for a period of nearly 3 days. It can be very hard or impossible to make progress to windward with wave heights like that. Add to that there really aren't any safe havens on that west coast.

It's a tough decision, however I reckon I'd rely on my AIS and run through Bass Strait. Of course that is not to underestimate the unpleasant conditions that form in Bass Strait in a SW gale.

Whatever the decision I think that Jess has demonstrated a fantastic determination and skill and I wish her a safe and quiet run to Sydney.